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Peer-Reviewed Publications:

Kaplan, A. (in revision) Scaling of geostrophic kinetic energy to the spatial variance of sea surface heights, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. To download in PDF.

Smerdon, J.E., A.Kaplan, and D.E.Amrhein, 2013: Reply to “Comments on ‘Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications,’” J. Climate, 26, 3485–3486. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00165.1 To download in PDF Supplementary Website

Karspeck, A.R., A.Kaplan, and S.R.Sain, 2012: Bayesian modelling and ensemble reconstruction of mid-scale spatial variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures for 1850-2008. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138, 234-248. doi: 10.1002/qj.900 Journal link To download in PDF.

Kaplan, A., 2011: Patterns and indices of climate variability [in "State of the Climate in 2010"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92(6), S161-S163. To download in PDF

Kaplan, A., 2011: Discussion of B.B.McShane and A.J.Wyner "A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?", Annals of Applied Statistics, 5, 47-51. To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Smerdon, J. E., A. Kaplan, E. Zorita, J. F. González-Rouco, and M. N. Evans, 2011: Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047372. To download in PDF Auxiliary materials

Smerdon, J.E., A.Kaplan, D.Chang, and M.N.Evans, 2011: Corrigendum: A pseudoproxy evaluation of the CCA and RegEM methods for reconstructing climate fields of the last millennium, J. Climate, 24, 1284-1309. To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Smerdon, J.E., A.Kaplan, and D.E.Amrhein, 2010: Erroneous model field representations in multiple pseudoproxy studies: Corrections and implications. J. Climate, 23, 5548-5554, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3742.1. To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Smerdon, J.E., A.Kaplan, D.Chang, and M.N.Evans, 2010: A pseudoproxy evaluation of the CCA and RegEM methods for reconstructing climate fields of the last millennium, J. Climate, 23, 4856-4880, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3328.1. To download in PDF Supplementary materials Please note the correction: Smerdon et al. 2011 listed above; to download the corrected version in PDF.

Arbuszewski, J., P.deMenocal, A.Kaplan, E.C.Farmer, 2010: On the fidelity of shell-derived delta O-18 seawater estimates, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 300, 185-196. To download in PDF

Rayner, N.A., A.Kaplan, E.C.Kent, R.W.Reynolds, P.Brohan, K.S.Casey, J.J.Kennedy, S.D.Woodruff, T.M.Smith, C.Donlon, L.A.Breivik, S.Eastwood, M.Ishii, T.Brandon, 2010: Evaluating climate variability and change from modern and historical SST observations, In: Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison, D.E. & Stammer, D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306, doi:10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.71 Official link To download in PDF (OceanObs'09 website) (local copy)

Ilin, A., and A.Kaplan, 2009: Bayesian PCA for reconstruction of historical sea surface temperatures, In: Proceedings of International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN 2009), Atlanta, GA, USA, June 14-19, 2009, paper 0246, pp.1322-1327. To download in PDF

Karnauskas, K.B., R.Seager, A.Kaplan, Y.Kushnir, M.A.Cane, 2009: Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, J. Climate, 22, 4316-4321. To download in PDF

Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, and D. Chang, 2008: On the origin of the standardization sensitivity in RegEM climate field reconstructions, J. Climate, 21, 6710-6723. To download in PDF

Linsley, B.K., P.Zhang, A.Kaplan, S.S.Howe, and G.M.Wellington, 2008: Interdecadal-decadal climate variability from multicoral oxygen isotope records in the South Pacific Convergence Zone region since 1650 A.D., Paleoceanography, 23, PA2219, doi:10.1029/2007PA001539. To download in PDF

Ihara, C., Y.Kushnir, M.A.Cane, and A.Kaplan, 2008: Timing of El Nino-related warming and Indian summer monsoon rainfall, J. Climate, 21, 2711-2719. To download in PDF

Smerdon, J.E., and A. Kaplan, 2007: Comment on "Testing the fidelity of methods used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate" by Mann et al. (J.Climate, 18:4097-4107, 2005): The role of the standardization interval, J.Climate, 20, 5666-5670. To download in PDF Supplementary materials

Huang, H.-P., A.Kaplan, E.N.Curchitser, and N.A. Maximenko, 2007: The degree of anisotropy for mid-ocean currents from satellite observations and an eddy-permitting model simulation, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C09005, doi:10.1029/2007JC004105. To download in PDF

Farmer, E. C., A. Kaplan, P. B. de Menocal, and J. Lynch-Stieglitz, 2007: Corroborating ecological depth preferences of planktonic foraminifera in the tropical Atlantic with the stable oxygen isotope ratios of core top specimens, Paleoceanography, 22, PA3205, doi:10.1029/2006PA001361. To download in PDF

Emile-Geay, J., M. Cane, R. Seager, A. Kaplan, and P. Almasi, 2007: El Nino as a mediator of the solar influence on climate, Paleoceanography, 22, PA3210, doi:10.1029/2006PA001304. To download in PDF

Black, D. E., M.A. Abahazi, R.C. Thunell, A. Kaplan, E.J. Tappa, and L.C. Peterson, 2007: An 8-century tropical Atlantic SST record from the Cariaco Basin: Baseline variability, twentieth-century warming, and Atlantic hurricane frequency, Paleoceanography, 22, PA4204, doi:10.1029/2007PA001427. To download in PDF

Kent, E.C. and A. Kaplan, 2006: Toward estimating climatic trends in SST. Part III: Systematic biases, J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 23(3), 487-500. To download in PDF

Karspeck, A.R., A. Kaplan, M.A. Cane, 2006: Predictability loss in an intermediate ENSO model due to initial error and atmospheric noise, J.Climate, 19(15), 3572-3588. To download in PDF

Linsley, B.K., A.Kaplan, Y.Gouriou, J.Salinger, P.B.deMenocal, G.M.Wellington, S.S.Howe, 2006: Tracking the extent of the South Pacific Convergence Zone since the early 1600s, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 7, Q05003, doi:10.1029/2005GC001115. To download in PDF

Evans, M.N., B.K. Reichert, A. Kaplan, K.J. Anchukaitis, E.A. Vaganov, M.K. Hughes, and M.A. Cane, 2006: A forward modeling approach to paleoclimatic interpretation of tree-ring data, J. Geophys. Res., 111, G03008, doi:10.1029/2006JG000166. To download in PDF

Anchukaitis, K.J., M.N.Evans, A.Kaplan, E.A.Vaganov, H.D.Grissino-Mayer, M.K.Hughes, and M.A.Cane, 2006: Forward modeling of regional-scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the recent influence of summer drought. Geophysical Res. Lett., 33(4), L04705, doi:10.1029/2005GL025050. To download in PDF

Gorodetskaya, I.V., M.A. Cane, L.-B. Tremblay, A. Kaplan, 2006: The effects of sea-ice and land-snow concentrations on planetary albedo from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Atmosphere-Ocean, 44(2), 195-205. To download in PDF

Fairbanks, R.G., T.-C. Chiu, L. Cao, R.A. Mortlock, and A. Kaplan, 2006: Rigorous quality control criteria for screening coral samples and radiocarbon calibration data based on 14C, 230Th/234U/238U and 231Pa/235U dated corals - A reply to the comment by Yusuke Yokoyama and Tezer M. Esat on "Extending the radiocarbon calibration beyond 26,000 years before present using fossil corals" by T.-C. Chiu, R.G. Fairbanks, R.A. Mortlock, A.L. Bloom (Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 1797-1808), Quaternary Science Reviews, 25(2), 3084-3087. To download in PDF

Shaman, J., M.A.Cane, A.Kaplan, 2005: The relationship between Tibetan snow depth, ENSO, river discharge and the monsoons of Bangladesh. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 26(17), 3735-3748. To download in PDF

Fairbanks, R.G., R.A.Mortlock, T.-C.Chiu, L.Cao, A.Kaplan, T.P.Guilderson, T.W.Fairbanks, A.L.Bloom, P.M.Grootes, M.-J. Nadeau, 2005: Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0-50,000 years BP based on paired 230Th/234U/238U and 14C dates on pristine corals. Quaternary Science Reviews, 24, 1781-1796. doi:10.1016/j.quascierev.2005.04.007. To download in PDF

Curchitser, E.N., D.B. Haidvogel, A.J. Hermann, E.L. Dobbins, T.M.Powell, and A.Kaplan, 2005: Multi-scale modeling of the North Pacific Ocean: Assessment and analysis of simulated basin-scale variability (1996-2003), J. Geophysical Res., 110, C11021, doi10.1029/2005JC002902. To download in PDF

Kaplan, A., M.A. Cane, D. Chen, D.L. Witter, R.E. Cheney, 2004: Small-scale variability and model error in tropical Pacific sea level. J. Geophysical Res., 109, C02001, doi:10.1029/2002JC001743. To download in PDF

Evans, M.N. and A. Kaplan, 2004: The Pacific sector Hadley and Walker Circulations in historical marine wind analyses, in The Hadley Circulation: Present, Past and Future. H.F.Diaz and R.S. Bradley (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherland, 239-258. To download in PDF

Black D.E., R.C. Thunell, A. Kaplan, L.C. Peterson, and E.J.Tappa, 2004: A 2000-year record of Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic hydrographic variability, Paleoceanography, 19, PA2022, doi:10.1029/2003PA000982. To download in PDF

Chen, D., M.A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S.E. Zebiak, and D.Huang, 2004: Predictability of El Nino over the past 148 years, Nature, 428, 733-736. To download in PDF

Seager, R., A. Karspeck, M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Giannini, A. Kaplan, B. Kerman, J. Velez, 2004: Predicting Pacific decadal variability. Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate Variability. C. Wang and S.-P. Xie and J. A. Carton, ed., American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, pp.115-130. 25MB in PDF

Kaplan A., M.A. Cane, and Y. Kushnir, 2003: Reduced space approach to the optimal analysis interpolation of historical marine observations: Accomplishments, difficulties, and prospects, in Advances in the Applications of Marine Climatology: The Dynamic Part of the WMO Guide to the Applications of Marine Climatology, WMO/TD-1081, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 199-216 [Downloadable from ftp://ftp.wmo.int/Documents/PublicWeb/amp/mmop/documents/JCOMM-TR/J-TR-10-CLIMAR-99/Presentations/session_07/07.3_Kaplan.pdf. It is also available as a local copy here].
Please note a correction to the page 213 of this paper available at ftp://ftp.wmo.int/Documents/PublicWeb/amp/mmop/documents/JCOMM-TR/J-TR-13-Marine-Climatology/JCOMM-TR-13-Correction-p-213.pdf! A local copy of this correction is here.


Rayner, N.A., D.E. Parker, E.B. Horton, C.K. Folland, L.V. Alexander, D.P. Rowell, E.C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys. Res., 108(14), 10.1029/2002JD002670. To download in PDF

Evans, M. N., A. Kaplan, and M.A. Cane, 2002: Pacific sea surface temperature field reconstruction from coral d18O data using reduced space objective analysis, Paleoceanography, 17(1), 10.1029/2000PA000590. To download in PDF

Cullen, H.M, A. Kaplan, P. Arkin, P. deMenocal, 2002: Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Middle Eastern climate and streamflow. Climatic Change, 55, 315-338. To download in PDF

Cañizares, R., A. Kaplan, M.A. Cane, D. Chen, S.E. Zebiak, 2001: Use of data assimilation via linear low order models for the initialization of ENSO predictions. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 30947-30959. To download in PDF

Evans M.N., A. Kaplan, M.A. Cane, and R. Villalba, 2001: Globality and optimality in climate field reconstructions from proxy data, in V. Markgraf (ed.) Present and Past Inter-Hemispheric Linkages in the Americas and Their Societal Effects., Cambridge University Press, p. 53-72. To download in PDF

Evans, M.N., M.A. Cane, D.P. Schrag, A. Kaplan, B.K. Linsley, R. Villalba and G.M. Wellington, 2001: Support for tropically-driven Pacific decadal variability based on paleoproxy evidence, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3689-3693. To download in PDF

Chen, D., M.A. Cane, S.E. Zebiak, R. Cañizares, and A. Kaplan, 2000: Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2585-2588. To download in PDF

Kaplan A., Y. Kushnir, M.A. Cane, 2000: Reduced space optimal interpolation of historical marine sea level pressure: 1854-1992, J. Climate, 13, 2987-3002. To download in PDF

Evans, M., A. Kaplan, and M. Cane, 2000: Intercomparison of coral oxygen isotope data and historical sea surface temperature (SST): Potential for coral-based SST field reconstructions, Paleoceanography, 15, 551-563. To download in PDF

Black, D.E., L.C. Peterson, J.T. Overpeck, A. Kaplan, M. Evans, M. Kashgarian, 1999: Decade- to century-scale dynamics in the North Atlantic revealed by an 825-year marine laminated sediment record. Science, 286, 1709-1713. To download in PDF

Evans, M., A. Kaplan, and M. Cane, 1998: Optimal sites for coral-based reconstruction of sea surface temperature, Paleoceanography, 13, 502-516. To download in PDF

Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan, 1998: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18567-18589. To download in PDF

Chen, D., M.A. Cane, S.E. Zebiak, and A. Kaplan, 1998: The impact of sea level assimilation on the Lamont model prediction of the 1997/1998 El Niño, 1998: Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2837-2840. To download in PDF

Kaplan, A., Y. Kushnir, M. Cane, and M. Blumenthal, 1997: Reduced space optimal analysis for historical datasets: 136 years of Atlantic sea surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 27835-27860. To download in PDF

Cane, M.A., A.C. Clement, A. Kaplan, Y. Kushnir, R. Murtugudde, D. Pozdnyakov, R. Seager, and S.E. Zebiak, 1997: Twentieth century sea surface temperature trends. Science, 275, 957-960. To download in PDF

Cane, M.A., A. Kaplan, R.N. Miller, B. Tang, E.C. Hackert, and A.J. Busalacchi, 1996: Mapping tropical Pacific sea level: data assimilation via a reduced state space Kalman filter. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 22599-22617. To download in PDF

Reverdin, G., A. Kaplan, and M. Cane, 1996: Sea level from temperature profiles in the tropical Pacific Ocean 1975-1992. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 18105-18119. To download in PDF

Basniyev, K.S. and A.G. Kaplan, 1993: Utilization of the natural thermogravitational effects in the extractive working of gas condensate-oil fields. Transactions of the Russian Academy of Sciences (translations from Russian), 318, 1328-1331.

Rapoport, L.I. and A.G. Kaplan, 1989: Elastic wave velocities and absorption in porous media saturated with an anomalously compressible fluid. Academy of Sciences of the USSR. Izvestiya. Physics of Solid Earth (translations from Russian), 25, 63-65.

Selected Non-Refereed Publications

Interim Sea Surface Temperature Science Team (ISSTST), 2010: Sea Surface Temperature Error Budget: White Paper. http://www.ssterrorbudget.org/ISSTST/White_Paper.html [Local PDF copy (June 18, 2010) is available here]

Kaplan, A., M.A.Cane, and Y.Kushnir, 2003: Toward R1850 reanalysis. Preliminary notes for UCAR Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System, NCAR, Boulder, CO, 18-20 August 2003. [Available at http://www.ofps.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings/climatesystem/R1850notes.pdf]

Kent, E.C., A. Kaplan, P.K.Taylor, 2003: Finding the true temperature of the ocean surface, Extended Abstracts, 83rd AMS Annual Meeting, 9-13 February 2003, Long Beach, California, JP4.14. [Available at http://ams.confex.com/ams/annual2003/techprogram/paper_58136.htm]

Kaplan, A., 2003: Eddy kinetic energy and small-scale sea level height variability. Institute for Mathematics and its Applications, preprint #1913. [Available at http://www.ima.umn.edu/preprints/mar2003/1913.pdf]

Kaplan, A., M.A. Cane, D. Chen, D. Witter, R. Cheney, 2002: Signal and noise in tropical Pacific sea level height analyses. Institute for Mathematics and its Applications, preprint #1903. [Available at http://www.ima.umn.edu/preprints/dec2002/1903.pdf]

Kushnir, Y., J. Miller, and A. Kaplan, 2002: Historical Surface Marine Wind Analyses and Data in the Tropical Atlantic Region, Report to the CLIVAR Atlantic Implementation Panel [Available at http://www.clivar.org/organization/atlantic/winds4web/TropicalAtlanticWinds.htm].

Kaplan, A., 2001: Expert User Guidance: SLP data set. Informed Guide to Climate Data Sets, NCAR, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/guide/Data/kaplan.html#expert

Kaplan, A., 2001: Expert User Guidance: SST data set. Informed Guide to Climate Data Sets, NCAR, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/guide/Data/kaplan_sst.html#expert

Kaplan, A., D. Witter, M.A. Cane, and Y. Kushnir, 2001: Toward optimal reconstruction of ocean surface flux fields: Exploring wind stress - sea level heights constraint, WCRP/SCOR Workshop on Intercomparison and Validation of Ocean-Atmosphere Flux Fields (Bolger Center, Potomac, MD, USA, 21-24 May, 2001), WCRP-115, WMO/TD-No. 1083., World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 142-147. [Available at http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/MET/WGASF/workshop/PDF/kaplan.pdf]

Kaplan, A., M.A. Cane, and Y. Kushnir, 2001: Reduced space approach to the optimal analysis of historical marine observations: Accomplishments, difficulties, and prospects. CLIMAR 99, WMO Workshop on Advances in Marine Climatology, Vancouver, Canada, 8-15 September, 1999, Proceedings, WMO/TD-1062, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, p. 275-283. To download in PDF

Tippett,M.K., M.Ji and A. Kaplan, 2000: Impact of temperature error models in a univariate ocean data assimilation system, CLIVAR Exchanges, 17, September 2000, pp. 1-3. To download in PDF

Knutson, T. R., A. Kaplan and N.A. Rayner, 1999: A Note on 20th Century Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures. [Available at http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/Note_on_Eq_Pac_SSTs.html]

Kaplan, A., Y. Kushnir, M.A. Cane, and M.B. Blumenthal, 1996: Statistical analysis of historical Atlantic SST data: methodology and application. ACCP Notes, III, No.1, 4-7.

Kushnir, Y. and A. Kaplan, 1994: Dynamical constraints for the analysis of sea level pressure and surface wind over the world ocean. Proceedings, International Winds Workshop, H.F. Diaz and H.-J. Isemer, Eds., US Dept of Commerce, 91-101. [Available at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/coads/kiel/Kiel.Kushnir.pdf]